Another Anti-Government Flashpoint as Protests Grow

What Happened?

Anti-government protests have grown and intensified over the past week in the eastern European/western Asian country of Georgia.

What began as a protest in Georgia’s capital, Tbilisi has spread across the country in a manner that has parallels to the beginning of the Maiden movement in Ukraine.

While membership in the European Union for Georgia is popular with the public, the Russian leaning government’s recent announcement to suspend European Union accession talks until 2028 triggered the current round of protests roiling the country. 

Why it Matters

Membership in the European Union (EU) is important to Georgians. It would allow them to permanently travel to and from the EU without a visa.

Though Georgian nationals may currently travel to the EU for up to 90 days without a visa, the short duration makes longer stays for work difficult. Longer stays would be possible with EU membership, which would open new travel and work possibilities for Georgians.

Both of which are especially popular with young people because good paying jobs are plentiful in the EU but not in Georgia.

Could events in Georgia turn into a repeat of Ukraine?

There are some indications it could. Rejection of EU membership was one of the key factors which triggered the Maiden protests in Ukraine in 2013. That was when then Ukrainian president Yanukovych canceled at the last minute a trade deal which would have given Ukrainians the ability to travel and work in the EU without a visa.

Yanukovych’s actions triggered widespread popular anger and protests, which grew in intensity until he fled the country. That led to a change of government in Kiev and subsequent violent security crackdowns by Russian supplied security forces, because Russia considered the new government to be illegal.

From there things escalated into open conflict in the Donbas region, which simmered for nearly a decade before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Georgia’s ruling regime today, like Ukraine’s in 2013, wants to move the country away from the EU and closer to Moscow. At the same time, the Georgian public wants the opposite, as did Ukrainians.

The current protests and harsh security crackdowns have yet to escalate into a government overthrow or open conflict as they did in Ukraine, but the potential is there for both to happen. 

How it Affects You

Russia regards the protests in Georgia as the work of foreign influence, as they did in Ukraine in 2013.

In a way, Russian authorities are right. Georgians want to be part of the EU for the economic benefits, so there is foreign influence at work, just not the kind Russia claims.

There is no evidence of foreign agents organizing the protests in Georgia as Russian authorities have asserted. The protests in Georgia are homegrown. 

Russia, already facing humiliation with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria which it backed for years and a grinding conflict in Ukraine with no end in sight has limited resources to devote to Georgia.

Yet there is still potential for violence in Georgia because Moscow doesn’t want another key country on Russia’s periphery to become a member of the EU. The rules and regulatory requirements for government and businesses that come with EU membership would directly threaten Russian corruption, which now operates with impunity in Georgia.

Whatever happens in the short-term, it’s another potential global flashpoint.