Assad’s Regime Collapse and What it Means for the Middle East

What Happened?

The ruling regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has collapsed.

Mr. Assad fled Syria following a lighting fast advance on Damascus by rebel forces.

Assad’s fall marked a stunning development in the thirteen-year long Syrian Civil War, though whether this will bring a permanent end to hostilities in the war-torn country remains unclear. 

Why did this rebel onslaught succeed where many others like it had failed?

The clear difference was the lack of resistance by the Syrian Army. Previously, Syrian Army forces loyal to Assad fought off rebel and insurgent groups who threatened the ruling regime. But this time, government forces simply melted away or didn’t fight at all.

Exactly why government forces chose now to abandon the fight is unknown. But their decision not to contest the latest rebel advance spelled the end of the Assad regime, which had ruled Syria since 1971.

As for Mr. Assad, Russia has granted him asylum in Russia, though his exact whereabouts are unknown.

Why it Matters

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria is significant for several reasons.

From a security perspective, the victory of Islamic-terrorist groups over an established ruler is already being hailed as a moment of resurgence by other terrorist groups across the Levant (roughly speaking, the area covering modern day Syria, Lebanon, Israel, and Jordan. Although, it can extend as far as Turkey and Greece, Iraq, and across Egypt into Libya).

The name of the victorious rebel group is Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, which translates into Levant Liberation Committee, a name which conveys ambitions beyond Syria itself. 

The group’s leader, Abu Mohommad Al Jolani, is a former ally of ISIS, the brutal but toppled Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.

These two former allies had a falling out over tactics which turned them into enemies, a not uncommon occurrence among jihadist groups in the Levant. One of the reasons such groups struggled against the Assad regime was because they often turned on each other and were consequently unable to unify their forces for very long.

Syria’s protracted civil war has already displaced over six million Syrians, many of whom fled to European nations seeking asylum. The potential for another large wave of migration is present, either of displaced Syrians trying to return home or for Assad loyalists to flee Damascus now that their protector and benefactor has abandoned them, or both.

Whether or not a new government can be formed and sustained in Syria will be the key to determining whether Syria’s refugees will seek to return home.

But it doesn’t end there. There will be regional consequences for Assad’s fall as well.

The collapse of the ruling Syrian regime is a major humiliation for Iran, which has long backed Assad with money, weapons, and influence. It will not be lost on Iran’s own dissidents that a corrupt and oppressive regime can be toppled by a sustained and concentrated effort.

Assad’s fall is a warning for Iran’s ruling regime, and to other unpopular regimes in the Levant, though whether they will choose reforms over harsh security crackdowns as a response to their own dissidents remains to be seen.

How it Affects You

Bashar al-Assad was a brutal dictator who tortured, killed, and starved his own people to stay in power.

While his fall itself is good news for the people of Syria, who or what will take his place remains unknown.

A designated terrorist group and former ally of ISIS is now nominally in control of Syria’s government and vast oil resources. That is not something to celebrate.

Complications in the Middle East have just become even more complicated.