Contentious Press Conference Highlights Challenges to Ending the War in Ukraine

What Happened?

A contentious press conference with U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky laid bare in public disagreements that have long been rumored to have been building in private.

During the volatile press conference President Trump and Vice-President Vance accused Mr. Zelensky of being disrespectful. For his part Mr. Zelensky remained defiant, although he later added in a public statement that he does respect the United States. 

The press conference ended when President Trump asked President Zelensky to leave the White House, which he did moments later.

Why it Matters

The press conference encounter seems to have ended at least for now a potential mineral rights deal between Ukraine and the United States. 

The public spat also deepened an already growing rift between NATO countries and the Trump Administration over Ukraine. Most European heads of state issued public statements that they stand with Ukraine. 

Britain, one of the America’s oldest allies, even went so far as to publicly question whether they can now trust the United States.

At the center of the controversy stems different assessments of the war in Ukraine and what to do about it. President Trump indicated through his statements at the recent press conference he believes Ukraine is in a bad position because they aren’t winning the war. While it’s probably true Ukraine isn’t winning the war, neither is Russia.

The most accurate description of the current ground truth in Ukraine is stalemate. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces have been able to gain or keep much ground during the past year. That’s despite repeated efforts by both to do so. And when neither side can dislodge the other for a long period that means the situation is a stalemate by definition.

While Ukraine’s situation is dire, so is Russia’s with respect to the war. Russia has likely suffered far more casualties than the Kremlin will publicly admit. The most likely reason Russian President Putin is even talking to President Trump is because Mr. Putin knows he can’t win the war on his own. 

Ukraine may not hold many cards, but Russia’s hand isn’t much better.

Russia has an advantage in terms of population and resources, but Ukraine has two major advantages of its own, namely enormous support from the United States and Europe. Europe has provided arms and aid equal to what the United States has provided.

Although an end to the U.S. support would hurt Ukraine’s war effort, Europe could likely continue providing enough aid to keep the fight going for some time.

How it Affects You

Should the Trump Administration end support to Ukraine while NATO countries continued to send arms, that would likely deepen the rift between the U.S. and NATO. 

Such an outcome would likely be exactly what Mr. Putin wants and would make him more likely to continue the war in Ukraine. It would also make it less likely for a peaceful outcome anytime soon.