Final Draft of New Peace Deal to End Gaza War Presented to Israel and HAMAS

What Happened?

Nidal Al-Muhgrabi of Reuters reported from Doha that mediators presented a completed draft of a new peace plan to end the Gaza War to Israel and HAMAS yesterday.

Representatives from the Biden Administration and the incoming Trump administration were present, though the specifics of the new proposal have not yet been made public.

The deal was presented by Qatar, which has been hosting talks between Israeli leaders and representatives of HAMAS. 

Why it Matters

According to President Biden ‘The deal... would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started.’ 

Spokesmen from both Israel and HAMAS publicly indicated they thought the current round of talks were progressing well, though neither side said they thought a deal was imminent. Another round of talks is scheduled to take place today in Doha. 

White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated he believed a peace deal could be within reach before the end of this week. Sullivan confirmed Biden had recently spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani about the negotiations.

Another potential indication that a new peace deal is at hand is the activity of the Israeli military. In the past few days, Israeli military forces have intensified attacks against HAMAS, and they may be doing so because they know their window for conducting such operations is about to close. 

The return of hostages held by HAMAS is a key condition of any peace deal for many Israelis, and family members of those hostages have been vocal in their opposition to any deal that doesn’t include the return of their loved ones.

The absence of Iran from the peace talks could be read as an indicator of Iranian weakness, since they have few direct options with which to shape the outcome of the current peace talks. Iran retains influence over HAMAS and Hezbollah, but the Iranians have been sidelined by the diplomatic process.

How it Affects You

The longer the war in Gaza goes on the greater the chances of it spreading into a major regional conflict, which would almost certainly involve the United States military.

There is already a low level regional dimension to the conflict, but it is far short of all out war between the combatants. The Israeli military has been very effective in destroying HAMAS targets, but it remains to be seen whether or not they’ve made progress on killing the idea of HAMAS.

Iran and its proxies including HAMAS, Hezbollah, and the Houthi would be the big losers of a peace deal, because their military defeat by Israel and the U.S. has been indisputable.

Iranian proxies are only seeking a peace deal because their military efforts have been unsuccessful.