Four U.S. Soldiers Still Missing in Lithuania after Their Submerged Vehicle Was Found

What Happened?

An M88 Hercules armored vehicle was found submerged in a bog this week in Lithuania. The four U.S. soldiers who had been operating the vehicle remained missing. 

Spokesmen for both the U.S. Army and Lithuania said the vehicle was located in sixteen feet of water several days after the soldiers who were driving it were reported missing. 

“We are leveraging every available U.S. and Lithuanian asset to provide the required resources for this effort,” said U.S. Army Major General Curtis Taylor, who is the commander of the 1^st Armored Division. 

Why it Matters

The Baltic States have recently increased their defenses and tightened security along their respective borders with Russia. To facilitate the increased defenses, Baltic nations, including Lithuania, have been conducting regular training exercises with U.S. forces to help better prepare them for a potential conflict with Russia.  

U.S. military personnel have been serving rotations in Lithuania for many years as part of Operation Atlantic Resolve, which began after the Russian takeover of Crimea in 2014.

That has meant an increase in the number of U.S. military personnel in Lithuania, which included the soldiers from the 1^st Armored Division. There was a saying in Afghanistan among U.S. military personnel that the number one enemy there wasn’t the Taliban, but terrain. 

Terrain can pose significant risks to both equipment and personnel depending on the operational environment. This includes areas that are difficult to traverse with heavy vehicles like the peat bog in Lithuania.

In remote and often poorly mapped areas, terrain can offer hidden dangers that can be difficult to avoid because you can’t see them. Even in areas which are relatively well known, like the training range in Pabrade, Lithuania, terrain can still pose life threatening dangers. 

During training exercises, the idea is to mimic as closely as possible the conditions that will be faced in actual combat. That includes maneuvering through harsh terrain. 

The Lithuanian border with Russia is a good example of challenging terrain that can pose risks even to well trained personnel correctly operating their equipment. Though the possibility of human error and foul play are always present, in this case based on what is currently known the most likely reason for the incident was terrain.

The M88 is a recovery vehicle, and one of the largest in the U.S. armed forces. It weighs over seventy tons, meaning if it encountered unexpectedly soft ground or a hidden water pool it could have sunk very quickly. 

The size of the vehicle also makes rescue operations difficult because moving a mass that large is a difficult engineering challenge.

How it Affects You

As more American military personnel are deployed to Eastern Europe and the Baltics, the risks they face even during training exercises will continue to grow as their numbers increase. 

While it has not been confirmed that the four missing soldiers died, the likelihood of their safe return is very much in doubt.