Mexico Says No to U.S. Drone Strikes Against Cartels

What Happened?

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum said her country would categorically reject any unilateral military action in Mexico. She added that she didn’t think such military action would not resolve anything. 

Ms. Sheinbaum made the comments during her regular morning press conference yesterday. She also said “The people of Mexico will not, under any circumstances, accept intervention, interference, or any other act from abroad.”

The Trump Administration hasn’t indicated it would undertake direct military action in Mexico. But senior officials including President Trump and Secretary of Defense Hegseth have refused to rule out such a possibility.

Why it Matters

The Trump Administration has already designated the Sinaloa Cartel and several other cartels in Mexico as global terrorist organizations. Following that designation, the U.S. military began increasing its aerial surveillance of Mexican drug cartels. 

Most of that surveillance consists of monitoring the communications and movements of key figures in those cartels. 

Increased surveillance isn’t necessarily a prelude to direct military action. Gathering more detailed intelligence on the locations, movements, and whereabouts of cartel members is exactly the kind of information that would be needed to plan and carry out military strikes.

Drone strikes offer the capability of hitting smaller targets with less firepower but more precision than conventional airstrikes. Conventional bombs are much larger than the munitions used by most drones. And where conventional strikes level entire city blocks, drone strikes can limit damage to a single structure or vehicle. 

The smaller warheads used by drone strikes usually mean less collateral damage. 

A drone strike can take out a single target in a crowded urban area without causing mass casualties or destruction. But the question is would direct military action against the cartels deliver the results the Trump Administration is looking for?

Drone strikes have proven effective at eliminating the leaders of terrorist organizations in other parts of the world. But it’s unclear whether drone strikes would do much to slow down cartel operations. 

In the Middle East and North Africa, terrorist groups are more like religious cults led by influential personalities. For those organizations, taking out the leader can cripple the groups ability to operate and recruit.

But cartels operate more like transnational corporations. That means they can replace leaders much more easily. The transactional nature of cartels means killing top bosses probably won’t stop the organization from functioning, although it may slow down operations temporarily.

How it Affects You

The U.S. military could certainly eliminate cartel leaders and production facilities. But both are easily replaced.

Cartels have demonstrated their ability to do so countless times in the past.

In addition, attacks on Mexican soil could provoke retaliation by the Mexican military and would likely reduce the cooperation of Mexico’s government with the Trump Administration.