Outbreak of Violence Raises Concerns About Syria’s Future

What Happened?

Over the weekend an outbreak of violence in western Syria killed hundreds and raised questions about the country’s future. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, as many as one thousand Syrians were killed in the past three days in the coastal areas of Syria. 

The violence appears to have broken out in Latakia Province, and although it’s unclear who started it the violent confrontations pitted former Assad loyalists against supporters of the current ruling regime loyal to Ahmed al-Shara. 

Al Shara later issued a statement saying, “We must preserve national unity and civil peace.”

Why it Matters

The outburst of violence this weekend represents the most serious threat to peace and stability in Syria since the collapse of the Assad regime. Some of the areas affected by the violence include Latakia and Tartus, which contains many of Syria’s Alawite minority. 

Alawites held senior leadership roles in Assad’s regime including the military and government, and the violence suggests some of the Islamist groups who overthrew Assad could be seeking to settle old scores.

The Syrian Observatory for Human rights hinted at such a possibility. It noted that the majority of the people killed this weekend were members of the Alawite community. Those reports have not yet been confirmed, but it’s certainly possible the information is valid. 

Government forces loyal to Ahmed Al Shara denied claims their security forces had carried out mass killings of civilians or any other type of reprisals. In Damascus on Sunday Mr. Al Shara said “We call on Syrians to be reassured because the country has the fundamentals for survival.”

While that may be true, it’s also true former Assad regime officials who themselves likely carried out atrocities would make tempting targets for jihadist groups whom they formerly fought against.

Civilians appear to be caught in the crossfire, worried that various armed groups will accuse them of being loyal to their respective enemies and kill them. With no way to leave the country civilians are often at the mercy of a number of different armed factions, from government security forces to jihadist groups loyal to Al Shara. 

During Syria’s decade long civil war, millions of Syrians fled to Europe and Turkey, contributing large number to the migrant populations in those destinations. Those migrants now must decide whether to return home, and violent flair ups like this one may convince many to stay where they are rather than risk returning home. 

How it Affects You

If the violence in Syria reignites the civil war, the result could be deadly for Syria’s population and problematic for nearby neighbors. 

Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, and Iraq could all face increased security threats if Syria is plunged back into conflict.