Russia’s War in Ukraine Dominates Discussions at the Munich Security Conference

What Happened?

This week Ukraine was a key topic at the Munich Security Conference. 

The conference has been held in Munich since 1963, and this year’s focus on Ukraine comes as no surprise following the recent phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

During the call, the two leaders reportedly agreed to begin discussions on how to end the war in Ukraine. Over the course of three days officials from Europe and the United States held a number of discussions and gave presentations on a variety of international security topics.

But how to end the war in Ukraine stood out as the most significant topic of discussion.

Why it Matters

As the war in Ukraine has entered its third year, Russia now controls roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory, mostly in the far eastern portions of Ukraine. 

The ground war in Ukraine has stalled in terms of territorial gains, with neither side gaining nor losing much in the past year. The conflict has grown costly for Ukraine and Russia in terms of blood and treasure, and despite public statements of resolve to continue fighting until victory both sides are exhausted from the war.

The Munich Security Conference also exposed internal divisions between Europe and the United States. European Union Council President Antonia Costa signaled continued support for Ukraine, saying “We will continue to stand shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine in the negotiations, providing security guarantees, in reconstruction and as a future member of the European Union.” 

While U.S. President J.D. Vance didn’t mention Ukraine directly in his remarks. It’s clear the Trump Administration wants to bring the war in Ukraine to a close even if it means doing so on terms less favorable to Ukraine.

For his part Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky ruled out any peace deal that required Ukraine to make permanent territorial concessions to Russia. Although he did float the idea of trading Ukrainian held territory in the Kursk region to Russian in exchange for Russia giving up control of land in Ukraine. 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov flatly rejected that idea as a non-started for Russia. Despite the call between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, Russia and Ukraine remain far apart on how to end the now three-year-old war. 

Without buy-in from both, any potential peace deal could not succeed in bringing the war to a close.

How it Affects You

The longer the conflict continues in Ukraine, the greater the chances it could grow into a direct confrontation between Russia and the United States and NATO.

As long as the combatants believe they have more to gain by continuing the fighting, it is unlikely negotiations will make much headway.