The Growing Risk of Power Blackouts in America

What Happened?

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) released its annual Long-Term Reliability Assessment Tuesday.

It relayed a warning that around half of the United States faces an increased risk of power supply shortfalls over the course of the next decade. These shortfalls may result in power outages or even the need for electricity conservation measures.

In their assessment, NERC highlighted that the rising U.S. power demand, due to AI data centers, building electrification, and electric vehicles, has outpaced any efforts to add a new electricity generation.

When combined with the planned retirement of several fossil-fuel power plants, this creates an imbalance that threatens grid stability, particularly during periods of extreme heat and cold.

Regions at the highest risk include PJM Interconnection, ISO New England, and the Texas and California grid operators.

Why it Matters

As the accelerating demand for electricity continues to rise, it underscores the strain on the U.S. power grid. It will be forced to adapt to both rising consumption and a steady shift toward cleaner energy sources.

NERC reported that 78 gigawatts of electricity generation capacity have already been confirmed for retirement by 2034. An additional 37 gigawatts is planned for shutdown as well.

To put this into perspective, a single gigawatt of capacity can power up to a million homes. That means these retirements would leave tens of millions of households vulnerable to outages.

As the U.S. pushes for a cleaner energy transition, trying to balance supply and demand remains a challenge. That’s especially so as both coal and natural gas plants are decommissioned before sufficient replacements are operational.

Regions at elevated risk of power disruptions will be especially vulnerable during extreme weather events. Summer heat waves or winter ice storms are big risks, when electricity demand spikes.

Grid operators in these areas may also struggle to meet demand, which may potentially force rolling blackouts or conservation mandates.

How it Affects You

For consumers, the risk of potential power shortfalls translates into potential disruptions to daily life, particularly in areas that are identified as high-risk. During extreme weather circumstances, power outages can lead to health and safety concerns, economic losses, and potential interruptions to critical services.

The report also highlighted the growing importance of energy efficiency and preparation for individuals and businesses. Households may need to consider backup solutions like generators, and adopt energy-saving practices in order to mitigate any potential disruptions.

As the grid evolves to accommodate renewable energy and electrification trends, consumers may experience fluctuating energy prices.

The states and regions most affected by these potential shortages may need to accelerate investments into their infrastructure in order to ensure reliability, which could ultimately affect utility bills and tax costs.