Trump Administration Pauses Support to Ukraine

What Happened?

Following a much publicized and contentious White House Press Conference between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky, American aid and support to Ukraine have been at least temporarily halted. 

The Trump Administration announced the move this week. Although White House spokesmen did say the door is open for aid to resume flowing to Ukraine if certain conditions are met. 

One of those conditions is moving ahead with peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, although no dates or times for such negotiations have yet been scheduled.

Why it Matters

The pause in U.S. aid and support to Ukraine includes more than just arms and supplies. The United States has also stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine, a move which could have an even larger impact on the battlefield. 

For the past three years intelligence sharing has enabled Ukrainian armed forces to more effectively target and avoid Russian forces. Without that information Ukraine will likely be more vulnerable to Russian attacks. 

The pause in aid and intelligence will put pressure on Ukrainian President Zelensky to move forward with proposed peace talks. Since the fractious meeting with President Trump, Mr. Zelensky has indicated his willingness to do so. 

The recent talks between U.S. and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia were not direct negotiations about the war in Ukraine. Rather, the topic in Riyadh was how to define a path that could lead to direct negotiations.

America’s pause in support to Ukraine hands Russia a clear tactical advantage. Russian forces may try to increase their operations to maximize the opportunity. 

Without the intelligence provided by the United States, Russian forces will be able to maneuver without being as easily detected to set up future attacks. 

NATO countries are still sharing intelligence with Ukraine. But the loss of American intelligence sharing will likely hurt Ukraine almost immediately. 

The loss of intelligence will also hamper Ukraine’s ability to target Russian forces in the field, providing Russia with a measure of protection. Russian President Putin is likely to seize the chance to try to make new military gains against Ukraine. 

For the past year and half the war in Ukraine’s east has become a stalemate, with neither side able to make substantial gains against the other. The recent moves by the Trump Administration could change that by tipping the balance to Russia.

How it Affects You

The pressure being applied to Ukraine is designed to lead to peace talks Mr. Putin likely cares little about. But they are giving him a window to achieve military progress on the battlefield he cares about very much. 

It’s possible Mr. Putin is negotiating in bad faith with the Trump Administration in the name of peace so Russian forces can attempt to win a military victory they would otherwise be unable to achieve.