U.S. and Iran to Hold Talks in Oman This Weekend

What Happened?

According to both Iranian and American officials, the United States and Iran are scheduled to hold talks in Oman this weekend. Although the Trump Administration characterized the talks as direct and the Iranians called them indirect, both countries confirmed the talks would take place. 

Neither Iran nor the U.S. provided an agenda for the discussions, but the Trump Administration has made it clear they want to pursue a new nuclear deal with Iran.

Why it Matters

The choice of Oman as the location is logical, since Omani’s are friendly with both Iran and the United States. President Trump has stated Iran needs to come back to the negotiating table in order to avoid U.S. military action, but the driving force behind Iran’s change of heart is likely the current situation in the Middle East.

Iran has been the biggest loser in the war between Israel and Gaza besides the Palestinians. Iran’s proxies including HAMAS and Hezbollah have been trounced by the Israeli military in combat, and across the Levant those losses have triggered a corresponding loss of prestige for Iran. 

As the late Fouad Ajami said, people tend to back the stronger horse, and right now Iran looks weak. 

Despite the Iranian regime’s constant anti-U.S. rhetoric, Iranian leaders view discussions with the United States as potentially useful. It believes such talks can convey the appearance that Iran is on equal footing with America. 

Iran insists its nuclear activities are entirely peaceful, which raises the question of why would an oil rich nation like Iran need nuclear power?

Iran uses much of its oil for exports which provides badly needed revenue to run the national government. Because of that, there is a genuine need for nuclear energy in Iran, but the Iranian regime is divided over acquiring nuclear weapons. 

The Supreme Leader has issued a fatwah, or religious ruling, which declared the possession or use of nuclear weapons to be un-Islamic.

However, many powerful members of the Iranian regime, including Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, regard that message as merely a cover. They see it as a way to secretly work to acquire nuclear weapons in order to destroy Israel. 

Israeli sabotage has been effective at crippling key Iranian facilities and has likely prevented Iran from developing a working nuclear weapon.

"We don't avoid talks; it's the breach of promises that has caused issues for us so far," Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian told a cabinet meeting recently. "They must prove that they can build trust,” he said, referring to the United States and the withdrawal from the previous nuclear deal by the first Trump Administration.

How it Affects You

The U.S. doesn’t have any good military options against Iran, which is much larger and more populous than Iraq. 

Iran’s nuclear sites are scattered across the country and well defended, meaning airstrikes alone would be unlikely to destroy them all. 

Diplomacy is a better option, but it is the Iranian’s who must prove they can be trusted.