Ukraine Agrees to Thirty Day Ceasefire Proposal, Russia Still Undecided

What Happened?

Ukraine has agreed to a thirty-day ceasefire proposal from the United States, while Russia has yet to indicate whether it would participate. 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said the Russian government was scrutinizing the proposal details. He added, Moscow doesn’t want to get ahead of itself by immediately agreeing to the proposed ceasefire deal. 

Ukrainian officials said if Russia agrees to participate the ceasefire would take effect immediately. Russian officials havent indicated when they may issue a decision on the proposal. 

Why it Matters

If put into effect, the ceasefire would be the first pause in the full-scale war which began in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. From 2013 through 2022, Russian and Ukrainian forces fought in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine in a conflict which raged mostly unnoticed by the rest of the world.

The continuation of the Donbas conflict for so long is one of the factors that led to the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022.

Both Russian and Ukrainian forces have likely suffered losses far greater than either are willing to admit publicly. Ukrainians want the war to end because they are war weary after three years of combat which has devastated large portions of their country. 

Russian President Putin likely wants the war to end soon so he doesn’t have to order another mass mobilization of troops, which would be deeply unpopular in Russia.

Europe wants the war to end to lower the chances of the conflict spreading from Ukrainian battlefields to European countries. The United States wants the war to end because President Trump promised to end the war during his election campaign, and he appears to want to make good on his promise. 

Which means everyone involved in the war either directly or indirectly has a reason to want the fighting to stop. Whether that happens now depends on the details of the proposal. If Russia agrees to the terms, which haven’t been made public, then the ceasefire could begin.

Russia and Ukraine had a number of ceasefires and agreements during the Donbas War from 2013 through 2022, and none of them lasted more than a few months. While the current ceasefire proposal is a good sign, it’s far from a guaranteed path to a permanent end to the war between Russia and Ukraine.

How it Affects You

America is divided over the war in Ukraine, with one faction wanting to continue support and the other seeking to end any further aid or spending. 

Even a thirty-day ceasefire could create some breathing room for negotiations to begin, which would be a necessary first step towards finding a permanent end to the conflict.