United States and Russia Agree to Start Talks on How to End the War in Ukraine

What Happened?

This week in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia the U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

It was a follow up to President Donald Trump’s conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 12.

Secretary Rubio was joined by National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Special Envoy, Ambassador Steve Witkoff – the team chosen by President Trump to reestablish the bilateral relationship.

Foreign Minister Lavrov was joined by Russian Aide to the President, Yuri Ushakov. 

Mr. Rubio said the outcome of the talks centered on three overarching goals for the United States and Russia: to restore staffing at their respective embassies in Washington and Moscow, to create a high-level team to support Ukraine peace talks, and to explore closer relations and economic cooperation.

Why it Matters

Mr. Rubio characterized the Riyadh talks as simply the beginning of a conversation while adding that “much work remains to be done.” 

Ukraine was noticeably absent from the talks. And while collectively the U.S. and Russia have considerable influence, any future agreement to end the war in Ukraine that didn’t include buy-in from the Ukrainians would most likely result in a failed effort. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country would not accept any outcome from the talks since Kyiv didn’t take part. He also postponed a planned trip to Riyadh that had been scheduled for this week. 

Ukraine and Russia remain far apart on what it would take to end the war, and neither side appears willing to make much in the way of concessions to the other. 

While the desire by both U.S. and Russian leaders to end the war in Ukraine is a positive sign, their ability to do so hinges on resolving at least some of the issues underpinning the conflict itself. 

For example, Ukraine has offered to swap territory it holds in the Kursk region of Russia for land Russia holds in eastern Ukraine, an idea Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov flatly rejected. 

The war in Ukraine has become something like a modern-day version of trench warfare, with neither side able to advance against the other. While Russia currently occupies about one fifth of the territory of Ukraine in the far eastern portion of that country, its ability to hold that land is tenuous at best. 

Russia’s military is more effective the closer it is to its logistics centers, and the longer its supply chain becomes the less effective Russian forces appear to be in combat. 

How it Affects You

The Trump Administration wants to bring the war in Ukraine to a swift end to fulfil a campaign promise.

But the reality on the ground suggests there is a long way to go before that goal can be achieved. 

Despite their ambitions, neither Moscow nor Washington D.C. can end the war in Ukraine simply by fiat.